JRC report analyses 47 risks and calls for anticipatory governance

A new report by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has analysed how can we prepare to face the risks of today and prepare for those of tomorrow. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) analysed 47 risks spanning natural, technological, societal and geopolitical domains. This analysis resulted in a report exploring how current and emerging risks interact with each other to generate compounding effects and cascading impacts. 

The report identifies the drivers that are most likely to influence multiple risks: geopolitical instability is the most common one, followed by weak governance, climate change, urbanisation, environmental degradation, and technological development. While the risk landscape in Europe is well documented, there is significant fragmentation across risk definitions and classification, methodologies, and standards, the report finds. These differences create challenges, but also contribute to building a richer and more nuanced overview. The report highlights the need for better interoperability and coordination to capitalise on this diversity of sources. It calls for the development of a comprehensive EU risk assessment framework, capable of accounting for multiple hazards and enabling coordination across sectors and borders with a whole-of-society approach. 

Investing in foresight and scenario planning should also be a priority, the JRC points out. Scenario planning should include the so-called Earth system tipping points. These are thresholds that, if crossed, would lead to devastating and often irreversible consequences. At least five of the sixteen identified tipping points could be crossed if average global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 °C. As crossing these tipping points is no longer an unlikely scenario, the EU should integrate these possibilities into its risk planning. 

The report is based on a comprehensive analysis of 38 reports from EU institutions, as well as relevant scientific publications and stakeholder consultations. It builds on the JRC’s 2024 analysis of cross-border and emerging risks in Europe, which involved over 60 experts and underscored the growing complexity and interconnectedness of disaster risks across Europe. 

For more information:

JRC - news

JRC report: Analysis of risks Europe is facing (2025)